Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.35 – 32.33

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 135.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±18.5

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 9.18Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 45.26Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 55.91Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.6 ±17.5

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -37.73Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 9.46Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 60.6Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3975, 8132, 6929

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3975, 8132, 6929

Auto

32.0 32%

Teleop

44.3 44%

Endgame

23.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3985, 3996, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3985, 3996, 3544

Auto

15.0 37%

Teleop

23.7 59%

Endgame

1.6 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.4pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78
Score range: 8–134
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 133.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211Season APEX345.6

32Auto15

44.3Teleop23.7

23.5Endgame1.6

38Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	30
teleop	76	149
endgame	68	48
foul	5	0
total	186	227

Result

Final score

186 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 135.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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