Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.37 – 146.76

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.5 ±19.7

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 17.84Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX -33.98Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 54.51Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±18.4

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 25.69Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 22.23Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 98.84Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5618, 7471, 6869

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5618, 7471, 6869

Auto

15.4 42%

Teleop

33.1 91%

Endgame

-12.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6872, 4955, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6872, 4955, 5528

Auto

25.9 19%

Teleop

83.2 62%

Endgame

25.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.4pts

Blue projected score146.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.4
Score range: 14–171
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 131.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.5Season APEX230.8

15.4Auto25.9

33.1Teleop83.2

-12Endgame25

156Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	36
teleop	34	66
endgame	30	38
foul	0	5
total	78	145

Result

Final score

78 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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