Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.81 – 165.36

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.7 ±17.4

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 55.32Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 74.88Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 52.61Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.9 ±17.4

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 36.21Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 112.92Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 16.23Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8067, 4952, 7605

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8067, 4952, 7605

Auto

39.3 22%

Teleop

126.4 70%

Endgame

14.8 8%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5439, 3986, 8224

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5439, 3986, 8224

Auto

32.1 21%

Teleop

98.1 63%

Endgame

24.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.8pts

Blue projected score165.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 142–206
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.7Season APEX298.9

39.3Auto32.1

126.4Teleop98.1

14.8Endgame24.9

44Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	36
teleop	139	102
endgame	61	71
foul	20	0
total	248	209

Result

Final score

248 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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