Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.8 – 84.98

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 104.9 ±20.8

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -24.56Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 30.5Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX 19.86Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.7 ±17.5

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -9.32Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 48.58Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 45.72Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3985, 5443, 296

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3985, 5443, 296

Auto

7.8 46%

Teleop

-21.6 0%

Endgame

30.8 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3532, 9234, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3532, 9234, 3544

Auto

21.7 30%

Teleop

23.5 32%

Endgame

27.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.8pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.2
Score range: 3–108
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

104.9Season APEX390.7

7.8Auto21.7

-21.6Teleop23.5

30.8Endgame27.8

149Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	27
teleop	4	97
endgame	3	74
foul	0	0
total	14	198

Result

Final score

14 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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