Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.13 – 212.61

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.6 ±16.8

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 8.9Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 41.34Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 44.89Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.8 ±13.9

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 76.24Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 40.61Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 95.76Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9624, 8132, 4947

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9624, 8132, 4947

Auto

26.6 28%

Teleop

30.7 32%

Endgame

37.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 6364, 5800, 3360

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6364, 5800, 3360

Auto

21.2 10%

Teleop

142.2 67%

Endgame

48.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.1pts

Blue projected score212.6pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.5
Score range: 73–235
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.6Season APEX310.8

26.6Auto21.2

30.7Teleop142.2

37.9Endgame48.9

122Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	41
teleop	118	164
endgame	77	46
foul	0	20
total	222	271

Result

Final score

222 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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