Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

59.79 – 37.63

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.4 ±19.2

7700West Tech Paladins

Provisional

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 32.89Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 9.56Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 17.34Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.8 ±19.7

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX -33.22Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 48.12Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 22.73Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7700, 9220, 3533

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7700, 9220, 3533

Auto

21.4 38%

Teleop

31.5 56%

Endgame

3.8 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7471, 6929, 4955

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7471, 6929, 4955

Auto

-1.7 0%

Teleop

32.1 100%

Endgame

-1.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.8pts

Blue projected score37.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.2
Score range: 16–82
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.4Season APEX137.8

21.4Auto-1.7

31.5Teleop32.1

3.8Endgame-1.5

31Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	28	42
endgame	19	8
foul	15	0
total	79	66

Result

Final score

79 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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