Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.58 – 113.33

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.8 ±19.1

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 26.33Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 23.16Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 111.09Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.1 ±20.2

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 39.15Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 23.83Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 50.35Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6622, 2626, 8152

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6622, 2626, 8152

Auto

20.7 14%

Teleop

90.1 63%

Endgame

33.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6872, 3550, 6869

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6872, 3550, 6869

Auto

9.1 7%

Teleop

90.0 73%

Endgame

23.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.6pts

Blue projected score113.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.3
Score range: 91–183
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.8Season APEX162.1

20.7Auto9.1

90.1Teleop90

33Endgame23.5

153Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	14
teleop	106	56
endgame	26	29
foul	10	0
total	171	99

Result

Final score

171 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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