Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.64 – 211.26

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.6 ±18

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 93.61Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 23.68Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 121.35Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.6 ±16.4

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 48.23Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 61.31Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 101.72Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4947, 5443, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4947, 5443, 3986

Auto

33.5 14%

Teleop

132.9 56%

Endgame

70.4 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8067, 5439, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8067, 5439, 5528

Auto

63.0 30%

Teleop

98.1 47%

Endgame

47.1 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score238.6pts

Blue projected score211.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.4
Score range: 181–269
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.6Season APEX294.6

33.5Auto63

132.9Teleop98.1

70.4Endgame47.1

81Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	71
teleop	108	93
endgame	85	39
foul	0	15
total	224	218

Result

Final score

224 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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