Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.28 – 92.39

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.6 ±14.6

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 104.55Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 31.82Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 20.91Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.7 ±18

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 33.32Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 21.07Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 38Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5528, 3996, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5528, 3996, 4627

Auto

35.1 22%

Teleop

93.4 58%

Endgame

33.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3117, 5618, 3975

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 5618, 3975

Auto

18.5 27%

Teleop

29.2 42%

Endgame

21.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score92.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.9
Score range: 69–180
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.6Season APEX173.7

35.1Auto18.5

93.4Teleop29.2

33.1Endgame21.8

92Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	63	34
endgame	35	11
foul	5	0
total	128	59

Result

Final score

128 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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