Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.09 – 89.72

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.8 ±19.1

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 79.87Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX 20.19Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 36.03Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±18

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 28.36Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -15.86Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 77.22Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4952, 296, 8224

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4952, 296, 8224

Auto

19.5 15%

Teleop

101.9 76%

Endgame

12.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8132, 3532, 3360

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8132, 3532, 3360

Auto

31.6 36%

Teleop

41.4 47%

Endgame

14.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.1pts

Blue projected score89.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 67–159
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.8Season APEX262.6

19.5Auto31.6

101.9Teleop41.4

12.2Endgame14.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	43
teleop	55	75
endgame	46	41
foul	0	0
total	117	159

Result

Final score

117 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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