Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.64 – 62.6

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±19.1

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 58.17Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 40.94Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 6.53Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.5 ±18

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 19.42Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -4.65Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 47.83Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8067, 4947, 4955

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8067, 4947, 4955

Auto

29.4 28%

Teleop

34.9 33%

Endgame

41.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9624, 3985, 6929

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9624, 3985, 6929

Auto

6.5 13%

Teleop

28.1 56%

Endgame

15.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.6pts

Blue projected score62.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43
Score range: 40–129
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233Season APEX204.5

29.4Auto6.5

34.9Teleop28.1

41.1Endgame15.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	16
teleop	98	5
endgame	35	13
foul	0	15
total	142	49

Result

Final score

142 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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