Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.34 – 71.2

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.9 ±13.9

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 19.9Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 7.37Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 58.07Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.4 ±19.7

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 30.08Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 14.68Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 26.44Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3117, 4627, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 4627, 6364

Auto

0.5 1%

Teleop

51.2 66%

Endgame

26.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6622, 5618, 6872

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6622, 5618, 6872

Auto

7.6 12%

Teleop

44.7 71%

Endgame

10.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.3pts

Blue projected score71.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.1
Score range: 47–109
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.9Season APEX166.4

0.5Auto7.6

51.2Teleop44.7

26.3Endgame10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	84	49
endgame	47	19
foul	0	0
total	142	88

Result

Final score

142 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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