Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.33 – 116.26

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±17

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 29.01Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 37.14Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7700West Tech Paladins

Provisional

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 14.18Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.8 ±17.1

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 34.25Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 69.65Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 12.36Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3544, 7605, 7700

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3544, 7605, 7700

Auto

9.7 14%

Teleop

60.6 85%

Endgame

0.6 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3975, 5528, 9234

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3975, 5528, 9234

Auto

38.5 35%

Teleop

53.1 49%

Endgame

17.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score116.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.9
Score range: 57–139
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433Season APEX293.8

9.7Auto38.5

60.6Teleop53.1

0.6Endgame17.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	37
teleop	88	94
endgame	25	55
foul	0	35
total	164	221

Result

Final score

164 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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