Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.19 – 129.5

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 69.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.5 ±16.2

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 11.14Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 82.37Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 24.68Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.2 ±16.8

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 14.67Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 6.98Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 107.85Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 8152, 3996

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 8152, 3996

Auto

15.0 14%

Teleop

84.5 78%

Endgame

8.3 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3550, 9220, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3550, 9220, 3986

Auto

11.0 9%

Teleop

89.6 70%

Endgame

27.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.2pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.3
Score range: 96–152
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.5Season APEX274.2

15Auto11

84.5Teleop89.6

8.3Endgame27.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	137	89
endgame	57	47
foul	0	15
total	210	176

Result

Final score

210 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 69.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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