Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.31 – 97.11

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 81.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.6 ±18.6

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 9.34Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 8.18Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 52.79Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.8 ±19.1

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 11.24Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 48.25Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 37.62Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8224, 6869, 3360

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8224, 6869, 3360

Auto

21.9 33%

Teleop

49.1 75%

Endgame

-5.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2626, 5443, 6929

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2626, 5443, 6929

Auto

30.6 29%

Teleop

36.7 34%

Endgame

39.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.3pts

Blue projected score97.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.8
Score range: 49–118
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.6Season APEX192.8

21.9Auto30.6

49.1Teleop36.7

-5.2Endgame39.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	14
teleop	142	59
endgame	38	36
foul	0	10
total	212	119

Result

Final score

212 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 81.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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