Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.69 – 80.62

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.2 ±19.7

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX -1.36Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 17.67Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX 11.38Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.5 ±18.1

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 11.38Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 51.19Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 18.05Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4955, 5618, 296

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4955, 5618, 296

Auto

8.5 29%

Teleop

22.2 76%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4627, 8067, 6622

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4627, 8067, 6622

Auto

37.4 49%

Teleop

17.3 23%

Endgame

21.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.7pts

Blue projected score80.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.9
Score range: 6–103
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.2Season APEX216.5

8.5Auto37.4

22.2Teleop17.3

-1.6Endgame21.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	22	71
endgame	24	21
foul	20	5
total	77	117

Result

Final score

77 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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