Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.74 – 83.62

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.7 ±17.5

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 22.33Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 22.86Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 55.55Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±16.6

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 44.76Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 22.86Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7700West Tech Paladins

Provisional

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 16Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3544, 6872, 5439

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3544, 6872, 5439

Auto

33.9 36%

Teleop

39.9 43%

Endgame

19.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6364, 9624, 7700

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6364, 9624, 7700

Auto

16.0 19%

Teleop

50.2 59%

Endgame

19.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.1
Score range: 62–123
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.7Season APEX286.6

33.9Auto16

39.9Teleop50.2

19.6Endgame19.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	8
teleop	96	74
endgame	21	20
foul	5	20
total	130	122

Result

Final score

130 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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