Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.86 – 242.06

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±18

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 92.32Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 9.09Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 28.45Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.5 ±15.8

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 50.41Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 101.12Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 90.53Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8152, 3533, 3117

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8152, 3533, 3117

Auto

12.9 11%

Teleop

73.5 62%

Endgame

31.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6929, 6364, 4952

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6929, 6364, 4952

Auto

33.0 14%

Teleop

129.5 55%

Endgame

73.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.9pts

Blue projected score242.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.2
Score range: 100–272
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 164.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.3Season APEX288.5

12.9Auto33

73.5Teleop129.5

31.6Endgame73

74Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	29
teleop	73	142
endgame	43	46
foul	20	0
total	154	217

Result

Final score

154 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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