Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.15 – 238.65

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 61.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±13.9

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 25.43Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 98.12Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 101.6Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±15.6

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 22.33Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 122.58Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 93.74Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3117, 6364, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 6364, 3544

Auto

30.1 13%

Teleop

126.8 57%

Endgame

66.6 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9220, 3986, 3360

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9220, 3986, 3360

Auto

44.8 20%

Teleop

138.8 61%

Endgame

44.0 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.2pts

Blue projected score238.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.5
Score range: 196–268
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.6Season APEX328.7

30.1Auto44.8

126.8Teleop138.8

66.6Endgame44

56Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	53
teleop	182	72
endgame	98	27
foul	0	50
total	311	202

Result

Final score

311 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 61.3 pts

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