Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.16 – 241.07

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±13.9

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 26.69Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 99.36Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 103.11Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±15.6

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 23.27Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 123.28Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 94.52Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3117, 6364, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 6364, 3544

Auto

28.7 13%

Teleop

129.3 57%

Endgame

69.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9220, 3986, 3360

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9220, 3986, 3360

Auto

44.4 19%

Teleop

138.9 61%

Endgame

45.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.2pts

Blue projected score241.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.9
Score range: 200–270
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 162.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.6Season APEX328.7

28.7Auto44.4

129.3Teleop138.9

69.9Endgame45.4

50Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	49
teleop	108	137
endgame	42	31
foul	5	0
total	195	217

Result

Final score

195 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Match videos

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