Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.92 – 246.79

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±13.9

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 25.56Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 98.22Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 102.14Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±15.6

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 96.47Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 25.22Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 125.1Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3117, 6364, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 6364, 3544

Auto

29.2 13%

Teleop

127.9 57%

Endgame

68.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3360, 9220, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3360, 9220, 3986

Auto

44.1 19%

Teleop

141.4 61%

Endgame

47.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.9pts

Blue projected score246.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.9
Score range: 197–276
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.6Season APEX328.7

29.2Auto44.1

127.9Teleop141.4

68.2Endgame47.9

48Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	46
teleop	138	120
endgame	80	27
foul	5	5
total	249	198

Result

Final score

249 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 35.9 pts

Match videos

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