Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

426.6 – 411.66

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.6 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 81.52Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 149.64Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 195.44Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.1 ±9.8

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 149.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 120.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 141.64Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2412, 948, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 1540

Auto

93.4 23%

Teleop

232.1 56%

Endgame

85.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3674, 10416, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3674, 10416, 4089

Auto

76.5 19%

Teleop

223.0 55%

Endgame

107.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score426.6pts

Blue projected score411.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.9
Score range: 348–491
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 673 vs event baseline 353.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

759.6Season APEX574.1

93.4Auto76.5

232.1Teleop223

85.5Endgame107.8

104Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	75
teleop	235	189
endgame	46	30
foul	35	5
total	374	299

Result

Final score

374 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 pts

Match videos

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