Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

452.04 – 513.98

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

343 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.2 ±9.3

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 224.2Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 49.21Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 178.63Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 784.9 ±8.7

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 232.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 112.01Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 169.4Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 3663, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

452 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 955, 3663, 4915

Auto

102.5 23%

Teleop

249.0 56%

Endgame

90.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 9450, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

514 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 9450, 360

Auto

81.4 16%

Teleop

289.3 57%

Endgame

140.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.65 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score452pts

Blue projected score514pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.9
Score range: 389–577
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 891 vs event baseline 352.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.2Season APEX784.9

102.5Auto81.4

249Teleop289.3

90.2Endgame140.3

91Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	104
teleop	156	272
endgame	68	172
foul	15	0
total	343	548

Result

Final score

343 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts

Match videos

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