Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

613.69 – 443.82

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

653 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 867.6 ±7.5

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 43.99Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 246.99Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 322.71Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.6 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 86.98Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 155.79Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 201.05Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2811, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

613.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2811, 2910, 2046

Auto

109.2 18%

Teleop

345.5 57%

Endgame

154.4 25%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 948, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 1540

Auto

95.1 22%

Teleop

242.7 57%

Endgame

87.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score613.7pts

Blue projected score443.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.9
Score range: 381–677
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 997 vs event baseline 350.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

867.6Season APEX759.6

109.2Auto95.1

345.5Teleop242.7

154.4Endgame87.2

78Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	86
teleop	283	179
endgame	209	79
foul	5	0
total	653	344

Result

Final score

653 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Match videos

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