Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

408.74 – 445.92

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

568 – 411

Prediction missed · off by 97.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 614.6 ±9.8

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 140.83Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 134.61Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 133.3Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.2 ±9.8

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 172.18Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 135.96Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 137.78Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3674, 2471, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3674, 2471, 4089

Auto

91.8 24%

Teleop

216.5 57%

Endgame

74.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2522, 9430, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2522, 9430, 1778

Auto

81.9 19%

Teleop

252.2 58%

Endgame

103.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score408.7pts

Blue projected score445.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.2
Score range: 346–509
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 979 vs event baseline 349.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

614.6Season APEX607.2

91.8Auto81.9

216.5Teleop252.2

74.5Endgame103.7

119Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	93
teleop	271	182
endgame	158	131
foul	0	5
total	568	411

Result

Final score

568 – 411

Prediction missed · off by 97.1 pts

Match videos

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