Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

399.12 – 454.36

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

518 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 630.1 ±9.3

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 157.09Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 108.12Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 133.91Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 781.2 ±8.8

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 111.26Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 143.12Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 199.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5937, 4488, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5937, 4488, 6696

Auto

85.5 21%

Teleop

224.5 56%

Endgame

88.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1425, 9023, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1425, 9023, 4469

Auto

64.7 14%

Teleop

274.1 61%

Endgame

113.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score399.1pts

Blue projected score454.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.2
Score range: 336–517
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1010 vs event baseline 347.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

630.1Season APEX781.2

85.5Auto64.7

224.5Teleop274.1

88.7Endgame113.6

133Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	56
teleop	278	329
endgame	115	107
foul	30	0
total	518	492

Result

Final score

518 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.