Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

486.85 – 435.81

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

627 – 496

Prediction correct · off by 100.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 784.9 ±8.7

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 223.09Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 103.18Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 160.58Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.2 ±9.8

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 168.96Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 131.82Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 135.03Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5468, 9450, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

486.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 9450, 360

Auto

83.2 17%

Teleop

278.5 58%

Endgame

121.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2522, 9430, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2522, 9430, 1778

Auto

79.7 19%

Teleop

239.7 56%

Endgame

106.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score486.9pts

Blue projected score435.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51
Score range: 374–549
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1123 vs event baseline 345.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

784.9Season APEX607.2

83.2Auto79.7

278.5Teleop239.7

121.6Endgame106

121Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	91
teleop	336	308
endgame	216	97
foul	0	0
total	627	496

Result

Final score

627 – 496

Prediction correct · off by 100.2 pts

Match videos

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