Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.08 – 415.31

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

605 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 103.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.2 ±9.3

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 212.4Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 37.6Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 168.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.6 ±9.8

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 143.79Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 135.64Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 135.88Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 3663, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 955, 3663, 4915

Auto

97.8 23%

Teleop

233.5 56%

Endgame

88.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3674, 2471, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3674, 2471, 4089

Auto

102.9 26%

Teleop

211.2 54%

Endgame

76.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score418.1pts

Blue projected score415.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.8
Score range: 353–480
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1000 vs event baseline 344.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.2Season APEX614.6

97.8Auto102.9

233.5Teleop211.2

88.8Endgame76.1

115Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	48
teleop	315	246
endgame	105	71
foul	60	30
total	605	395

Result

Final score

605 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 103.6 pts

Match videos

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