Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

487.91 – 407.56

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

337 – 604

Prediction missed · off by 173.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 781.2 ±8.8

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 122.24Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 154.83Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 210.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.6 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 75.11Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 143.89Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 188.56Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1425, 9023, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

487.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1425, 9023, 4469

Auto

70.1 14%

Teleop

292.4 60%

Endgame

123.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 948, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 1540

Auto

87.4 22%

Teleop

226.1 58%

Endgame

75.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score487.9pts

Blue projected score407.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.4
Score range: 346–550
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 941 vs event baseline 343.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

781.2Season APEX759.6

70.1Auto87.4

292.4Teleop226.1

123.4Endgame75.8

69Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	125
teleop	211	317
endgame	85	142
foul	0	20
total	337	604

Result

Final score

337 – 604

Prediction missed · off by 173.7 pts

Match videos

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