Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

630.52 – 420.45

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

556 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 867.6 ±7.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 253.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 326.26Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 50.97Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.1 ±9.3

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 162.37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 115.76Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 142.32Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 2046, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

630.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2910, 2046, 2811

Auto

116.4 18%

Teleop

361.7 57%

Endgame

151.6 24%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5937, 4488, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5937, 4488, 6696

Auto

76.8 18%

Teleop

241.3 57%

Endgame

103.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.81 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score630.5pts

Blue projected score420.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.1
Score range: 358–693
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 902 vs event baseline 342.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

867.6Season APEX630.1

116.4Auto76.8

361.7Teleop241.3

151.6Endgame103.4

83Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	117
teleop	290	177
endgame	165	42
foul	20	10
total	556	346

Result

Final score

556 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 pts

Match videos

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