Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

501.78 – 427.2

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

418 – 529

Prediction missed · off by 92.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 784.9 ±8.7

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 229.06Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 107.28Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 165.44Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.6 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 81.66Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 150.26Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 195.28Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5468, 9450, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 9450, 360

Auto

84.5 17%

Teleop

278.8 56%

Endgame

135.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2412, 948, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 1540

Auto

91.5 22%

Teleop

238.2 58%

Endgame

81.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score501.8pts

Blue projected score427.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.6
Score range: 363–566
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 947 vs event baseline 355.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

784.9Season APEX759.6

84.5Auto91.5

278.8Teleop238.2

135.7Endgame81.5

101Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	83
teleop	255	277
endgame	67	169
foul	5	0
total	418	529

Result

Final score

418 – 529

Prediction missed · off by 92.8 pts

Match videos

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