Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

475.47 – 421.19

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

439 – 469

Prediction missed · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.2 ±9.3

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 217.48Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 86.59Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 171.4Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.6 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 79.93Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 147.9Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 193.36Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 7034, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 955, 7034, 4915

Auto

97.4 21%

Teleop

256.8 55%

Endgame

115.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 948, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 1540

Auto

88.5 22%

Teleop

233.2 58%

Endgame

81.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.42 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score475.5pts

Blue projected score421.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.3
Score range: 357–539
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 908 vs event baseline 354.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.2Season APEX759.6

97.4Auto88.5

256.8Teleop233.2

115.5Endgame81.1

116Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	112
teleop	237	273
endgame	96	84
foul	5	0
total	439	469

Result

Final score

439 – 469

Prediction missed · off by 42.1 pts

Match videos

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