Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

622.77 – 522.19

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

554 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 105 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 867.6 ±7.5

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 47.24Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 250.44Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 325.09Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 784.9 ±8.7

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 235.85Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 114.19Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 172.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2811, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

622.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2811, 2910, 2046

Auto

117.4 19%

Teleop

335.4 54%

Endgame

165.3 27%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 9450, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

522.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 9450, 360

Auto

85.7 16%

Teleop

287.2 55%

Endgame

147.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score622.8pts

Blue projected score522.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.6
Score range: 458–687
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 353.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

867.6Season APEX784.9

117.4Auto85.7

335.4Teleop287.2

165.3Endgame147.1

62Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	159	79
teleop	305	230
endgame	85	67
foul	5	5
total	554	381

Result

Final score

554 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 105 pts

Match videos

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