Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.85 – 421.34

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

460 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.2 ±9.3

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 217.58Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 87.23Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 172.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.1 ±9.3

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 161.89Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 115.8Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 143.65Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 7034, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 955, 7034, 4915

Auto

96.1 20%

Teleop

255.0 54%

Endgame

118.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5937, 4488, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5937, 4488, 6696

Auto

87.2 21%

Teleop

235.0 57%

Endgame

93.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score476.9pts

Blue projected score421.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.5
Score range: 357–541
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 835 vs event baseline 352.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.2Season APEX630.1

96.1Auto87.2

255Teleop235

118.5Endgame93.2

113Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	59
teleop	262	237
endgame	95	69
foul	0	10
total	460	375

Result

Final score

460 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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