Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.8 – 412.14

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

374 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.5 ±10.4

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 123.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 73.48Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 31.35Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.5 ±9.8

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 227.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 39.68Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 144.86Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4512, 1318, 1294

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4512, 1318, 1294

Auto

44.0 20%

Teleop

109.1 51%

Endgame

62.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 3663, 3674

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 3663, 3674

Auto

103.6 25%

Teleop

208.7 51%

Endgame

100.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score228.8pts

Blue projected score412.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.3
Score range: 168–473
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 782 vs event baseline 340.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.5Season APEX604.5

44Auto103.6

109.1Teleop208.7

62.2Endgame100.4

139Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	70
teleop	223	280
endgame	84	58
foul	0	0
total	374	408

Result

Final score

374 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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