Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.26 – 142.64

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.6 ±9.3

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 106.07Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 135.24Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 88.95Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363 ±9.4

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 31.49Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 61.36Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 49.79Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9450, 4089, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9450, 4089, 7034

Auto

64.2 19%

Teleop

177.7 53%

Endgame

90.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1595, 2926, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1595, 2926, 2811

Auto

38.5 27%

Teleop

56.8 40%

Endgame

45.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score330.3pts

Blue projected score142.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187.6
Score range: 82–391
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 547 vs event baseline 340.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.6Season APEX363

64.2Auto38.5

177.7Teleop56.8

90.4Endgame45.2

129Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	19
teleop	214	122
endgame	85	44
foul	10	0
total	362	185

Result

Final score

362 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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