Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

339.83 – 524.12

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

278 – 629

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±10.4

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 90.61Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 107.01Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 142.21Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 776.4 ±9.3

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 112.02Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 247.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 164.62Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2521, 753, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2521, 753, 1778

Auto

60.9 19%

Teleop

202.0 64%

Endgame

54.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10416, 2910, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

524.1 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10416, 2910, 2522

Auto

94.2 18%

Teleop

263.2 52%

Endgame

153.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score339.8pts

Blue projected score524.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.3
Score range: 279–585
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 907 vs event baseline 339.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.3Season APEX776.4

60.9Auto94.2

202Teleop263.2

54.9Endgame153.3

106Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	94
teleop	120	371
endgame	108	164
foul	5	0
total	278	629

Result

Final score

278 – 629

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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