Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

378.26 – 379.07

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

244 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 134.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±9.8

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 84.7Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 223.89Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 69.67Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500 ±9.4

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 107.84Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 201.18Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 70.05Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2374, 955, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2374, 955, 488

Auto

63.4 17%

Teleop

195.6 53%

Endgame

110.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 957, 1540, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 957, 1540, 4061

Auto

72.3 19%

Teleop

216.2 57%

Endgame

87.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score378.3pts

Blue projected score379.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.8
Score range: 317–440
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 340.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX500

63.4Auto72.3

195.6Teleop216.2

110.3Endgame87.9

111Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	96
teleop	137	128
endgame	73	10
foul	0	10
total	244	244

Result

Final score

244 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 134.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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