Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

373.04 – 410.02

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

501 – 537

Prediction correct · off by 127.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.3 ±9.8

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 123.7Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 154.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 94.37Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 796.3 ±8.1

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 139.38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 70.73Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 199.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9430, 4915, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

373 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9430, 4915, 8051

Auto

72.0 19%

Teleop

226.0 60%

Endgame

76.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9023, 2412, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

410 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9023, 2412, 4469

Auto

63.4 16%

Teleop

242.3 60%

Endgame

96.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score373pts

Blue projected score410pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37
Score range: 312–471
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1038 vs event baseline 338.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569.3Season APEX796.3

72Auto63.4

226Teleop242.3

76.4Endgame96.6

122Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	110
teleop	274	298
endgame	121	109
foul	10	20
total	501	537

Result

Final score

501 – 537

Prediction correct · off by 127.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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