Qualification · Qualification 94
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
221.16 – 228.58
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
117 – 298
Prediction correct · off by 86.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 25.35Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 76.38Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 119.43Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 169Event APEX 19.09Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 76.52Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 278Event APEX 132.97Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8896, 8248, 492
54
/ 100 compatProjected
221.2 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8896, 8248, 492
Auto
45.9 21%
Teleop
110.5 50%
Endgame
63.8 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10991, 2976, 948
56
/ 100 compatProjected
228.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10991, 2976, 948
Auto
52.8 24%
Teleop
119.2 54%
Endgame
49.5 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 64%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.85
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score221.2pts
Blue projected score228.6pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 64%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 23%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -7.4
- Score range
- 160–290
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
352.4Season APEX562.4
45.9Auto52.8
110.5Teleop119.2
63.8Endgame49.5
92Consistency113
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 62 | 47 |
| teleop | 30 | 153 |
| endgame | 25 | 98 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 117 | 298 |
Result
Final score
117 – 298
Prediction correct · off by 86.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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