Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.69 – 298.83

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 169.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.7 ±10.4

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 22.09Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 105.1Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 82.5Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628 ±9.8

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 58.83Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 121.64Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 118.36Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 997, 3218, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 997, 3218, 4131

Auto

32.2 16%

Teleop

123.9 61%

Endgame

45.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4125, 2471, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4125, 2471, 4450

Auto

78.7 26%

Teleop

172.1 57%

Endgame

49.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score209.7pts

Blue projected score298.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.1
Score range: 149–360
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 340.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.7Season APEX628

32.2Auto78.7

123.9Teleop172.1

45.7Endgame49.5

120Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	112
teleop	30	104
endgame	4	7
foul	15	275
total	70	498

Result

Final score

70 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 169.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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