Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

398.76 – 435.26

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

450 – 418

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.5 ±9.8

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 141.23Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 97.5Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 160.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.7 ±9.4

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 88.11Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 20.45Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 326.7Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1778, 4488, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1778, 4488, 360

Auto

78.8 20%

Teleop

238.3 62%

Endgame

67.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2521, 1983, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2521, 1983, 2046

Auto

73.7 17%

Teleop

275.4 64%

Endgame

83.5 19%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score398.8pts

Blue projected score435.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.5
Score range: 338–496
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 868 vs event baseline 339.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.5Season APEX581.7

78.8Auto73.7

238.3Teleop275.4

67.6Endgame83.5

100Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	79
teleop	251	261
endgame	124	53
foul	0	25
total	450	418

Result

Final score

450 – 418

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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