Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

243.71 – 386.43

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

319 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 23.09Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 95.64Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 124.98Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 666.6 ±8.8

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 64.94Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 198.04Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 123.45Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 9450, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1294, 9450, 6696

Auto

45.4 18%

Teleop

122.5 50%

Endgame

78.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1318, 1540, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1318, 1540, 4089

Auto

74.2 20%

Teleop

210.6 57%

Endgame

87.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score243.7pts

Blue projected score386.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.7
Score range: 183–447
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 770 vs event baseline 339.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.4Season APEX666.6

45.4Auto74.2

122.5Teleop210.6

78Endgame87.3

186Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	120
teleop	146	241
endgame	90	80
foul	5	10
total	319	451

Result

Final score

319 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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