Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
168.48 – 271.35
22%78%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
492 – 322
Prediction missed · off by 187.1 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 47.71Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 252.9Event APEX -Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 69.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.9 ±8.8
Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 88.29Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 273.9Event APEX -Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 131.43Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2471, 5937, 3674
51
/ 100 compatProjected
168.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2471, 5937, 3674
Auto
36.3 22%
Teleop
80.1 48%
Endgame
52.0 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8248, 9023, 6696
65
/ 100 compatProjected
271.3 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8248, 9023, 6696
Auto
54.6 21%
Teleop
140.1 53%
Endgame
70.9 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.65
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score168.5pts
Blue projected score271.3pts
Red win probability22%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 73%
Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 33%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -102.9
- Score range
- 112–327
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
599.4Season APEX608.9
20.9Auto39.2
54.3Teleop114.3
41.7Endgame60.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 142 | 51 |
| teleop | 253 | 180 |
| endgame | 97 | 86 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 492 | 322 |
Result
Final score
492 – 322
Prediction missed · off by 187.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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