Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

324.26 – 383.81

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.5 ±10.4

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 128.95Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 99.56Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 95.75Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.1 ±8.8

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 226.16Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 108.41Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 49.24Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4512, 8051, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4512, 8051, 2374

Auto

59.0 19%

Teleop

196.4 63%

Endgame

55.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 955, 3218, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 955, 3218, 2811

Auto

76.0 20%

Teleop

194.0 52%

Endgame

103.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.71 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score324.3pts

Blue projected score383.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.6
Score range: 263–445
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 645 vs event baseline 338.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.5Season APEX596.1

59Auto76

196.4Teleop194

55Endgame103.2

109Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	84
teleop	151	222
endgame	62	75
foul	0	5
total	259	386

Result

Final score

259 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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