Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

267.5 – 436.92

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

389 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 174.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 623.1 ±9.3

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 17.44Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 240.17Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 9.89Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.3 ±9.3

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 90.81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 205.95Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 140.16Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8896, 2910, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8896, 2910, 10991

Auto

78.5 29%

Teleop

112.1 42%

Endgame

78.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1425, 5468, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1425, 5468, 360

Auto

67.9 15%

Teleop

260.7 59%

Endgame

110.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1 · Blue 2.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score267.5pts

Blue projected score436.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.4
Score range: 207–498
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1054 vs event baseline 336.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

623.1Season APEX780.3

78.5Auto67.9

112.1Teleop260.7

78.8Endgame110.3

72Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	116
teleop	230	383
endgame	104	166
foul	0	0
total	389	665

Result

Final score

389 – 665

Prediction correct · off by 174.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree