Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

313.69 – 342.2

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.9 ±9.8

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 119Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 134.18Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 60.51Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 620.7 ±9.8

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 68.89Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 94.47Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 178.84Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 492, 948, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 492, 948, 2926

Auto

62.3 21%

Teleop

165.1 56%

Endgame

65.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4125, 10079, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4125, 10079, 2522

Auto

78.9 24%

Teleop

170.7 52%

Endgame

80.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.7pts

Blue projected score342.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 253–403
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 337.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.9Season APEX620.7

62.3Auto78.9

165.1Teleop170.7

65.6Endgame80.1

102Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	62
teleop	142	122
endgame	73	82
foul	15	10
total	311	276

Result

Final score

311 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree