Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

299.37 – 304

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

304 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.6 ±9.8

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 62.64Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 114.07Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 122.66Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.1 ±9.4

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 56.66Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 136.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 111.27Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1318, 957, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1318, 957, 4450

Auto

40.3 14%

Teleop

180.9 63%

Endgame

65.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2976, 9023, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

304 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2976, 9023, 2471

Auto

71.1 23%

Teleop

184.4 60%

Endgame

50.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299.4pts

Blue projected score304pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.6
Score range: 238–365
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 337.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.6Season APEX572.1

40.3Auto71.1

180.9Teleop184.4

65.3Endgame50.8

57Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	89
teleop	135	210
endgame	89	83
foul	0	45
total	304	427

Result

Final score

304 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree