Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.86 – 255.12

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.7 ±10.4

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 102.26Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 26.23Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 89.37Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.8 ±9.8

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 104.81Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 118.19Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 32.12Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8051, 1294, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8051, 1294, 7034

Auto

54.8 26%

Teleop

105.6 50%

Endgame

51.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9450, 3218, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9450, 3218, 1983

Auto

20.1 8%

Teleop

146.6 61%

Endgame

75.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score217.9pts

Blue projected score255.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.3
Score range: 157–316
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 338.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.7Season APEX437.8

54.8Auto20.1

105.6Teleop146.6

51.2Endgame75.6

135Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	60
teleop	114	99
endgame	57	30
foul	0	0
total	220	189

Result

Final score

220 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.