Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

557.59 – 196.13

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

768 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 124.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 932.7 ±8.7

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 205.29Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 133.09Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 219.21Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.4 ±9.3

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 128.07Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 61.46Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 6.6Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 5937, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

557.6 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 955, 5937, 2910

Auto

121.6 22%

Teleop

296.8 54%

Endgame

130.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4089, 488, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4089, 488, 10991

Auto

48.1 25%

Teleop

89.7 47%

Endgame

54.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.16 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score557.6pts

Blue projected score196.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 361.5
Score range: 135–619
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1002 vs event baseline 336.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

932.7Season APEX551.4

121.6Auto48.1

296.8Teleop89.7

130Endgame54.3

112Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	26
teleop	435	93
endgame	192	115
foul	0	0
total	768	234

Result

Final score

768 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 124.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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